Lies, damned lies and a war of words

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There are of course lies, damned lies and government statistics. To that we might be tempted to add analyst projections and market research. At times it does seem horribly tempting to conclude that all too many analyst firms simply think of a number, double it, draw a big curvy red line on a graph and hey presto, a whole new set of market predictions for a hitherto uncolonised sector of the IT industry!

Of course, that is to tar the entire analyst community with one bad brush, which is grossly unfair - although it is always interesting to check out which firms have ‘commercial relationships’ with which vendors before blithely accepting their latest visions of the future. Remember by now the object oriented database market should have been worth trillions according to just about every industry soothsayer on the face of the planet...

The relationship between vendor and analyst - and subsquently between end user and analyst is fascinating. Vendors live and breath analyst research - when it suits them. Oracle’s spats with Gartner Group - and analyst Betsy Burton in particular - are legendary, typically resulting in petulant outbursts and long running wars of words on the company web site as denial and counter denial are sent flying.

The latest company to be at the centre of this kind of row is Nucleus Research. No, we hadn’t heard of them either until recently when they hit a little public relations goldmine. Nucleus are the people who did the report announcing that Siebel’s top customers were not getting ROI from their software. As Siebel howled in anger, Nucleus played its trump card and revealed that they’d contacted the customers cited on the Siebel web site as being among their flagship successes. Ooops...

With that scalp on their belts, Nucleus moved on to i2 and pulled the same trick. But there’s increasing controversy over Nucleus’ approach. A second firm called Flemish Bay Analysis has now come out with a report arguing that the Nucleus report was badly researched and gives the wrong impression thanks to a flawed methodology.

Storm in a tea cup? Maybe, but it’s important to remember that there are large swathes of US senior management that won’t change their socks without checking with the analysts to make sure which colour they should be wearing on a Tuesday. Analysts have a huge influence over the direction of the industry.

Here at The Enterprise Software Forum, we hope to play our part by bringing you a digest of the latest market research information in our Market Intelligence column. In addition, we’ll shortly be bringing you the latest of our exclusive market research conducted in association with Vanson Bourne, which this time comes out with some interesting (and worrying) conclusions about .Net which Microsoft and Siebel should be interested in casting a wary eye over...

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17th Feb 2003 07:55

It is of course a well-established fact that 68% of all statistics are made up on the spot. :-)

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By admin
17th Feb 2003 07:44

The same situation in world of fashions.
Large manufacturers always surprisingly quickly prepare new collections before we see latest shows of “unpredictable” designers.
It seems, that all strings are pulled by one puppeteer.

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By admin
20th Feb 2003 23:48

Nucleus ROI models does not work and
many of their case studies are using
made up data

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By admin
24th Feb 2003 15:18

Let's be real here. Flemish Bay is trying to ride Nucleus' coat tails. The one criticism of the Nucleus report is that the sample size was small. But aren't the members of this sample -- Siebel's best customers -- ostensibly their best references? 100 percent of these marquee customers should be getting positive ROI, or something's wrong. Kudos Nucleus.

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By admin
19th Feb 2003 23:13

well done, i'd be interested in reading more on this topic.

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By admin
21st Feb 2003 05:43

I do not see this story on Nuclues web site ?

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By admin
17th Feb 2003 19:21

I congratulate Flemish Bay for taking a bold step against the Nucleus report. We have found Nucleus report on Siebel to be very incorrect and self publicity motivated. Where can I get the Flemish Bay analysis report?

Thanks (0)
avatar
By admin
24th Feb 2003 15:18

Let's be real here. Flemish Bay is trying to ride Nucleus' coat tails. The one criticism of the Nucleus report is that the sample size was small. But aren't the members of this sample -- Siebel's best customers -- ostensibly their best references? 100 percent of these marquee customers should be getting positive ROI, or something's wrong. Kudos Nucleus.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By admin
19th Feb 2003 23:13

well done, i'd be interested in reading more on this topic.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By admin
17th Feb 2003 19:21

I congratulate Flemish Bay for taking a bold step against the Nucleus report. We have found Nucleus report on Siebel to be very incorrect and self publicity motivated. Where can I get the Flemish Bay analysis report?

Thanks (0)
avatar
By admin
21st Feb 2003 05:43

I do not see this story on Nuclues web site ?

Thanks (0)
avatar
By admin
17th Feb 2003 07:44

The same situation in world of fashions.
Large manufacturers always surprisingly quickly prepare new collections before we see latest shows of “unpredictable” designers.
It seems, that all strings are pulled by one puppeteer.

Thanks (0)
avatar
17th Feb 2003 07:55

It is of course a well-established fact that 68% of all statistics are made up on the spot. :-)

Thanks (0)
avatar
By admin
20th Feb 2003 23:48

Nucleus ROI models does not work and
many of their case studies are using
made up data

Thanks (0)